A more comprehensive developmental state strategy — with lower interest rates, a lower exchange rate and a more progressive taxation — would require far more thorough capital and exchange controls as well as limits of foreign investors on domestic financial markets, in order to prevent massive capital flight and to reduce the problem of sudden stops Dierckx, , p.
Reinventing State Capitalism: Leviathan in Business, Brazil and Beyond by Aldo Musacchio
Although this overvaluation has eased a bit, there is a fairly broad consensus of economists from different theoretical perspectives that long-term overvaluation of the domestic currency is one of the major cases of the mixed Brazilian economic record during the last decades, particularly in manufacturing Nassif et al. Whereas companies in the services sector and in commodities can survive a steep currency appreciation very well Schneider, , p. During their fight against the global financial crisis, Western central banks have made matters much worse by flooding global financial markets with liquidity, much of which has found its way to Brazil e.
Although the devaluation going hand-in-hand with financial outflows may prove to be very helpful in the medium to long-term, sudden currency swings are detrimental for businesses that requires stability for their investment decisions Casanova and Kassum, , p.
And while Brazil successfully has combatted traditional forms of vulnerability to global financial markets based on high public foreign currency debts, it has created new ones based on short-term domestic currency assets Kaltenbrunner and Painceira, The failure to provide for effective financial stability with regard to interest rates, currency valuation and capital flows resulted in bursting a central pillar of the state-permeated version of Brazilian capitalism.
Under these conditions, the tension between the issues pursued by the labor party — such as rising wages, higher taxation to increase public expenditures, an increased role of public banks and political guidance on investment — and the interests of parts of industry became more obvious. Traditionally, the labor party is not part of the densely-knit network between domestic family capitalists and the state.
The rise of the labor party thus somewhat complicated the established coordination processes in the Brazilian political economy, even if fractions of the party have become part of the establishment during the PT administrations. In Brazil, however, there are traditionally three parties involved. In Brazil, the role of this third party fluctuates. The majority of the population considers a prominent role of foreign MNCs as a normal feature of economic life Schneider, , p.
Correspondingly, economic coordination has to take the voice of international capital into account. Quarrels within the Brazilian bourgeoisie already were a pretext to military interventions in the s Faucher, , p. The Cardoso governments, however, were temporarily able to unify the Brazilian bourgeoisie Schmalz, , p. This unity has eroded steadily since then. Today, the main dividing line within the Brazilian bourgeoisie on economic policies is between outward-looking factions agribusiness, allies of foreign capital, rentiers and the financial sector and factions with a focus on the domestic market domestic industrialists, trade sector on the other Diniz and Bresser Pereira, , p.
The main battleground between the latter is on macroeconomic policy issues, with the former, more powerful faction preferring a highly valued currency and high interest rates, due to their preference for financial over industrial investments Bresser-Pereira, , p. During the mids, the former have taken these conflicts to the streets, massively supported by the mainstream private media.
Members of Congress usually are not bound to a major political party, but rather follow individual career incentives. Pork barrel politics are usually more important than party coherence and financial donations by individual companies are crucial for financing elections campaigns Bazuchi et al.
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Within this difficult legislative system, the Lula and Dilma administrations were only able to pursue their reform agenda in a piecemeal way Schmalz, , p. This problem has become worse since the election that resulted in the record number of 28 parties in the Brazilian National Congress. Many powerful positions are occupied by oppositional politicians, many important economic reform projects are therefore blocked in Congress.
Thus, disaffection with coalitional presidentialism runs deep in Brazil Chaisty et al. Similarly, donations to the PT to finance a massive election campaign against heavy opposition by large shares of the upper middle classes and the mainstream mediawere an important element of the Petrobras scandal.
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This was done by creating a variety of fora for the formulation of sectoral and pan-sectoral policies, the incorporation of representatives from unions and other groups in public office and the involvement of union-led pension funds in economic decision-making Boschi, , p. At the same time, the PT governments were able to control more and more parts of the state apparatus in order to implement a change of course in economic matters Schmalz, , p.
Institutionally, the system of economic coordination has become more complicated because new institutions have been added to older corporatist ones that had been established in the Vargas era Boschi, , p. For example, the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Industrial CNDI , established in , only temporarily provided an effective tripartite coordination forum Balestro, ; Schneider, b, p. Particularly in industrial and innovation policies, administrative fragmentation still poses a major challenge for a coherent national development strategy.
Still, in comparison to other Latin American economies such as Argentina — with its massive conflicts between industry and agricultural interests — Brazil is not completely torn apart between fundamentally different interests Cervo, , p. Economic coordination is very cumbersome, but still can draw on some effective networks between state and domestic capital. The strong opposition by large parts of the Brazilian capitalist classes, the difficulty to gather sufficient majorities in Congress and the increased institutional complexity of the Brazilian state apparatus prevent more thorough economic and social reforms.
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While it shares a focus on a large domestic market, some crucial institutional complementarities and a substantial ability for coordination between state and business, it still suffers from the remaining residual dependency on Western capitalism. However, PT governments were unable to fully mobilize the institutional complementarities inherent in state-permeated capitalism in order to make the Brazilian economy more 'self-sufficient'.
They suffered from a limited ability to use the large domestic market in Brazil for the support of domestic Brazilian companies, from a still too open and volatile financial system, and from numerous frictions for domestic economic coordination due to the forceful presence of foreign multinationals in economic sectors that are key for productivity development. A move towards a domestically oriened accumulation regime has been initiated but insufficiently supported by a coherent mode of regulation, so to speak.
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Both the close personal alliances between state and business as well as the crucial state support for such an industrial strategy have not been strong enough to serve as an effective guide for economic action. As a result, firms and bureaucracies face uncertainty, leading to inadequate or even contradictory policy and management decisions. Instead of the current return to the liberal economic model, Brazil should rather further pursue its path towards state-permeated capitalism.
This would however require more thorough limitations on capital flows more stringent capital controls , the imposition of a mechanism to combat the Dutch disease for example through an export tax and the mobilization of higher taxes on the rich, with the receipts to be used for investments into education, innovation and further expansion of domestic demand. Obviously, this would meet fierce resistance by those classes that benefit most from a return to a liberal form of capitalism: rentiers and export-oriented fractions of the Brazilian economy. A successful move towards state-permeated capitalism requires broad political support by the middle classes.
The current political system in Brazil, particularly with regard to the status of the legislative, does not allow for a broad coalition for growth based on domestic consumption and production. It is therefore a misconception to assume that the solution would lie in ever more smart economic policies. The problem of residual dependency is not primarily a macroeconomic one that could be tackled by twisting knobs in the well-known repertoire of economic governance.
Overcoming this political system is an important precondition for overcoming residual dependency in Brazilian capitalism. Abu-el-Haj J.
Sérgio Giovanetti Lazzarini
Aguilera R. Kabbach de Castro, L.
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